Triumph of Achilles by Franz von Matsch

Triumph of Achilles by Franz von Matsch

Futile Forecasting and Quality of Sleep

June 7th, 2019


Hello all, on this day after the 75th anniversary of D-Day

BTC has continued to flirt around $8,000 over the last couple of weeks.  Is this a brief breather before another burst up to $10k, or some last gasps prior to a reversion back to $6,000 or lower? 

Futile forecasting aside, the anxiety associated with pondering on whether you will be proved right or wrong is never comfortable nor cheap.  Wishful thinking can be an expensive mindset - the market never listens nor cares.  Although hedging your holdings stunts gains from subsequent price increases, the savings garnered if the reverse occurs more than makes up for the potential sleepless nights.  Research has shown we'd rather not lose $100,000 as opposed to gain $100,000

If you are keenly aware of your risk tolerance and how much you can afford to lose, no matter.  All the chamomile tea in the world won't help you relax if prices revert.  To learn how Austere can help hedge your holdings and protect your sleep, contact us here.

Checking Implied Volatility yields on Deribit, comparing near-term vs. long-term call IVs reveals a normalized curve (or at least flatter than several weeks ago), with the farthest to expiry ATM call options (Dec '19) going for ~75% IV and the nearest term (June '19) listed at ~70%.  Volatility of course has been trending downward since May's BTC price spike where IV hit the 90s.  

On the reading end, am currently perusing Life After Google, as well as rereading The Iliad, and the Homeric question.  Fascinating. 

Some other interesting and crucial reads include hardware wallets vs. software wallets, and, the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of 2FA.

Until next time.

Brian Koralewski is the Founder of Austere Capital — a Digital Asset Advisory and Consulting Firm.

See all of our previous newsletters here.